Trains Delay Analysis System

The Egyptian National Railways (ENR) is the authority responsible for the overall planning of the traffic on the track and maintenance of the national rail network as well as the statistics on delays. For ENR, planning journeys with a desired arrival time is a challenging problem, as there often multiple routes between two points, and to accurately predict journey time requires an understanding of the reliability of the different parts of the network Moreover, the likelihood of a delay can vary with the time, day of the week, as well as factors such as weather and line obstructions that can affect large parts of the network, which creating a complicated dependency structure.

TransIT has developed a monitoring and analyzing system covering all trains’ journeys. A database has been constructed that includes information about to what extent freight trains and passenger trains arrive on time at stations The delay data covers all intermediate stations and sections in between, not only the final destination.

There are unique train numbers for trains that go between certain origins and destinations (OD) on a certain time. The train numbers represents information about, among others, if trains are travelling to the north or south, which region and monitoring unitFor each train, event times along the route, including arrival and departure time at the origin and destination and all sections in between, are given. Based on the information in the database OD-distance, scheduled and actual travel times, as well as arrival and departure delays have been calculated besides the reasons for the delay. Codes for any problem or cancelation at any stations or sections are also given To date, information from 2013 is available.

For decision makers, identifying the distribution of train delays and analyzing the delays by how the size is distributed, where they occur and when they occur could give an insight to where measures for improved reliability should be directed. Hence improving the service offered to the ENR customers and gain more trust of their journey’s system.